Tropical storms forecasts

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Aug 24th, '16, 10:23

Currently there are two "disturbances":

One is already a named Tropical Storm (Gaston):

The other one, to be called Hermine if and when it turns into a Tropical Storm (currently there's a 60% chance of that):

Be safe out there brothers!...

P.S. If anybody knows how to put up the special hurricane threads, please move this post there...

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Aug 24th, '16, 10:24

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data indicate
that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
is located over the northern Leeward Islands. Showers and
thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are
showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack
a well-defined circulation. Although environmental conditions are
currently only marginally conducive for additional development, this
system could become a tropical depression at any time during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph
across the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance late this
morning. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and
mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central
Bahamas. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Brown

Tony Meola · Post by **Tony Meola** » Aug 24th, '16, 21:25

Here we go.

I heard today that this one is positioned and set up to take off just like a Andrew. The claim conditions are the same.

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Aug 25th, '16, 03:19

Tony Meola wrote:I heard today that this one is positioned and set up to take off just like a Andrew. The claim conditions are the same.

I've heard the same talk... How much of it is due to to timing and the trauma left by Andrew is anybody's guess...

Be that as it may, the unnamed disturbance has actually gone down from 60% to 50% chance of forming a cyclone...

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Aug 25th, '16, 12:01

Cyclone formation chances for the next 48 hours is still 50%...

Cyclone formation chances for the next 5 days is 80%...

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Aug 26th, '16, 02:38

Cyclone formation chances for the next 48 hour has gone down to 30%...

Cyclone formation chances for the next 5 days is 60%...

Current position is between the southeastern tip of Cuba and the Turks and Caicos and it seems to be headed for the GOM via the FL straits...

Gaston is a category 2 currently northeast of Bermuda and swinging into the north Atlantic...

A new disturbance with a 10% chance of developing into a storm is roughly in the center of the GOM...

Tony Meola · Post by **Tony Meola** » Aug 26th, '16, 22:36

Season is heating up.

Rawleigh · Post by **Rawleigh** » Aug 29th, '16, 09:45

Nav: Thanks for keeping everyone informed. Pat used to do that and it kept many of us who are not meteorologically savvy from being surprised. I hope you will keep it up. Rawleigh

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Aug 29th, '16, 12:16

Rawleigh wrote:Nav: Thanks for keeping everyone informed. Pat used to do that and it kept many of us who are not meteorologically savvy from being surprised. I hope you will keep it up. Rawleigh

I'll do my best... Hopefully the "web masters" will give me the permissions that will allow me to create the specific threads that Capt. Pat used to do...

Having said that, here's the link for the Atlantic 2 day forecast: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

And I'd like to remind everybody that it's THEIR responsibility to check their local weather before setting out on the water...

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Aug 29th, '16, 12:20

Disturbance # 1 is off the coast of Texas... Currently a 10% of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours...

Disturbance # 2 is off the coast of Africa... Currently a 0% of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours...

This tropical depression # 8:

And this is tropical depression # 9:

Tony Meola · Post by **Tony Meola** » Aug 29th, '16, 19:47

#8 is due to hit the Carolina's in the next two days so heads up.

#9 looks interesting since it could reform in the Atlantic.

Yannis · Post by **Yannis** » Aug 30th, '16, 05:06

Nav,

You have to establish all links for the weather in the eastern med, the Aegean more specifically....!

It's been an extremely windy summer, to give you an idea, last year I had cruised 700 miles until now, this year only 330.
Terrible, up to 40+ knot winds around ALL islands.... Stayed in port most of the time, without internet but with a lot of friends and family.

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Aug 30th, '16, 06:01

Yannis wrote:You have to establish all links for the weather in the eastern med, the Aegean more specifically....!

I know the Greek don't get along too well with the Turks (who does? especially under Sultan Erdogan?) but here's 2 links:

http://www.mgm.gov.tr/en-us/marine-metu3-wind.aspx?d=da

http://www.mgm.gov.tr/en-US/marine-metu ... p&b=Aegean

Here's a few more:

http://passageweather.com (clickable map)

http://www.myweather2.com/Marine/Coasta ... W/map.aspx (clickable map)

http://www.poseidon.hcmr.gr/sailing_for ... ea_id=saeg

Yannis wrote:with a lot of friends and family.

That's what it's all about anyway!... Think about all the fuel you're saving ;-)))

Tony Meola · Post by **Tony Meola** » Aug 30th, '16, 20:19

Heads up Outer Banks. You are going to get a one two punch. Right after #8 passes, #9 is going come visiting. Looks like a lot of rain and wind. It is not expected to turn into a Hurricane.

Yannis · Post by **Yannis** » Aug 30th, '16, 21:59

Nav, you're a nerd alright !! Thanx.

Tony Meola · Post by **Tony Meola** » Aug 30th, '16, 22:49

Update

#9 is expected to strengthen to Hurricane status as it approaches Florida.

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Sep 2nd, '16, 01:41

Disturbance # 9 is officially a category 1 hurricane... Hermine is currently making landfall in the northeast corner of the GOM (FL Big Bend)...

mike ohlstein · Post by **mike ohlstein** » Sep 2nd, '16, 07:02

Bertram Weather......

ANZ815-022000- SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT AND SANDY HOOK TO 1000 FM- 443 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 TROPICAL STORM WARNING

TODAY N TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

TONIGHT E WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

SAT E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT NIGHT E WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 20 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

SUN E TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 TO 28 FT.

SUN NIGHT E TO NE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.

MON E TO NE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT.

MON NIGHT E TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 23 FT.

TUE E TO NE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT.

TUE NIGHT E TO NE WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 22 FT.

Tony Meola · Post by **Tony Meola** » Sep 2nd, '16, 21:38

There goes my week at the beach.

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Sep 3rd, '16, 02:58

As of 0200 both Gaston and Hermine have been downgraded to tropical storms...

Dug · Post by **Dug** » Sep 3rd, '16, 13:51

That's Bertram weather for sure. I'm wondering how fun it's going to get inside Fishers Island sound...gonna get gusty either way!!!

Tony Meola · Post by **Tony Meola** » Sep 3rd, '16, 21:52

It is blowing pretty good down here in Ocean county nj. So far the tide in our lagoon is only about a foot above normal. With sandy, by now it was ,2 feet higher.

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Sep 4th, '16, 02:48

Gaston has now completely spun out and no longer exists...

Hermine is now a post-tropical cyclone and will follow Gaston shortly...

A little east of the Lesser Antilles we have a new disturbance (# 1) which currently has a 20% chance of cyclone formation for the next 48 hours and a 30% for the next 5 days...

Bertramp · Post by **Bertramp** » Sep 6th, '16, 10:48

Left Sag Harbor this AM, was in Montauk yesterday.
Sitting in Mineola (mid-island/central Nassau), you would never know that it's ROCKIN' out east !!
White-caps inside of Cedar Point, not a boat on the water in Gardiner's Bay yesterday and only surfers out in the ocean (the real surfers, not the folks that just ride around with boards on their cars)

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Sep 10th, '16, 23:33

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving slowly northwestward. Satellite imagery
indicates that the circulation has become better defined today, but
the associated thunderstorm has not become any better organized in
the past few hours. Conditions are still favorable for a tropical
depression to form by during the next day or two while this
disturbance moves toward the northwest over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Hispaniola
remains disorganized. There are no signs of a surface circulation,
and conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves generally west-
northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

3. A weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern
Gulf of Mexico remains devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level
winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to
weaken while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph
into the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Brennan

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Sep 29th, '16, 11:05

We have a new tropical storm: Matthew...

Rawleigh · Post by **Rawleigh** » Sep 29th, '16, 12:03

Two of the best models are taking this along the track of Hazel from 1954, so heads up everyone!!! Still too early to tell what it will do, but forewarned is forearmed!!

Tony Meola · Post by **Tony Meola** » Sep 29th, '16, 21:12

Mathew is now a Hurricane. The path is unclear, it could still swing up into the gulf or head up the east coast. Keep an eye on this one guys. If the rain in the North East hangs on too long, it will gut sucked inshore and up the coast.

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Sep 30th, '16, 02:36

Tony Meola wrote:Mathew is now a Hurricane. The path is unclear, it could still swing up into the gulf or head up the east coast. Keep an eye on this one guys. If the rain in the North East hangs on too long, it will gut sucked inshore and up the coast.

Matthew started out as a tropical depression, turned into a tropical storm, turned into a category 1 hurricane and is now a category 2 hurricane...

Keep an eye on this one guys!... Especially if you happen to be in Cuba or the Bahamas...

JeremyD · Post by **JeremyD** » Sep 30th, '16, 12:05

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Sep 30th, '16, 18:06

Hurricane Matthew is now a big boy as a Category 4 hurricane...

Be careful out there friends... And if you live in Jamaica, Cuba or the Bahamas - I hope you had your plan and supplies ready because it looks like you're going to need them... It's certainly time to put up the shutters or plywood or whatever your plan calls for...

What did the hurricane say to the coconut tree?!...

Hold on to your nuts, this is going to be one hell of a blow job!...

Tony Meola · Post by **Tony Meola** » Sep 30th, '16, 22:57

Cranked up to a cat 5. Heads up everyone. Looks like everything from Cuba north is on this ones potential hit list. Could be up hear in the NE by the end of the week.

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Oct 1st, '16, 02:59

Tony Meola wrote:Cranked up to a cat 5.

With winds of 160 knots this bad boy is now a Category 5 hurricane... This is definitely a bad one... Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas are going to get hammered... SEF (South East FL) isn't in the clear yet either... Heavy rain reports from Marathon...

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Oct 1st, '16, 11:32

Some more models:

Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba are definitely going to get hammered... The Dominican Republic is going to get lots of rain... Whether it's the Bahamas and or SEF that are going to follow depends on how things develop...

Factoid: although hurricane Matthew (currently at the high end of a Category 4 hurricane) was the 1st Atlantic hurricane to reach Category 5 since Felix of 2007...

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Oct 1st, '16, 11:45

BTW, the NHC Atlantic Ops center of the National Weather Service has a twitter feed: https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic

SteveM · Post by **SteveM** » Oct 1st, '16, 12:57

Here's a good site with lots of animated models: [url http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/[/url]
Duchess is here in FL. Praying the house come through this OK.

Charlie J · Post by **Charlie J** » Oct 1st, '16, 13:21

everyone in the way stay safe

Tony Meola · Post by **Tony Meola** » Oct 1st, '16, 21:20

Hopefully it will getsuckedupbetweenthe two pressure systems and then it is out of Dodge fast.

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Oct 2nd, '16, 03:18

Right now nobody knows where it's going... The models are all over the place:

Preston Burrows · Post by **Preston Burrows** » Oct 2nd, '16, 17:40

Hard-a-starboard please!

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Oct 3rd, '16, 04:34

Preston Burrows wrote:Hard-a-starboard please!

Pray (if you believe in that sort of thing) harder!

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Oct 3rd, '16, 16:22

http://www.bearpawsweather.com/tropical/

Charlie J · Post by **Charlie J** » Oct 4th, '16, 05:11

heads up n Carolina guys

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Oct 4th, '16, 05:16

Matthew is moving slowly... Still a Category 4 hurricane... Current track has moved west...

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Oct 4th, '16, 05:41

Right now Haiti is getting hammered... Cuba is next... Gitmo was partially evacuated... The Bahamas are going to get hammered... SEF might be... Depending on the exact track...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 20.09,2174

Rawleigh · Post by **Rawleigh** » Oct 4th, '16, 09:19

I'm not liking this one!

Dug · Post by **Dug** » Oct 4th, '16, 15:23

Neither do I.

Alchemy is coming out tomorrow. I am running her a ways up the CT river to the Chester Marina. I think better safe than sorry...

D

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Oct 4th, '16, 15:52

Matthew's forecasted track is still moving westward... It looks like the eastern coast of Florida is going to get hit too...

AND we have a new tropical storm... Nicole... Luckily right now she's way eastward of land but who knows where she'll be going...

Capt.Frank · Post by **Capt.Frank** » Oct 4th, '16, 20:07

I sure hope this storm goes west more or a lot more east would be great. Eastern NC has had 15+" of rain last month. If we get high winds and another 12"+ rain from this there is going to be a lot of damage. Hatteras got flooded last month from tropical storm. If Matthew hits us as a strong 2 might get some new inlets. He also better start speeding up. We don't need a slow storm.

Navatech · Post by **Navatech** » Oct 5th, '16, 00:39

Matthew is still moving westward... In the past 48 hours, the projected path has moved 250 miles west...

Rick Scott (FL Governor) has declared a state of emergency...