Tropical Storm Colin

[CaptPatrick]

Tropical Storm Colin

[CaptPatrick]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
2100 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016

CORRECTED FOR NAMES OF BREAKPOINTS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA TO THE
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE...FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48
HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 87.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 87.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.1N 87.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.0N 85.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 34.0N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 41.9N 58.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 240SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 48.0N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 53.5N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 87.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Tony Meola]

Here we go. Off to the races. Looks like we could have a busy season.

[CaptPatrick]

TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

Colin does not look much like a tropical cyclone in satellite
imagery this afternoon. The center remains well removed from the
showers and thunderstorms, and the reconnaissance aircraft data has
found the strongest winds about 200 n mi southeast of the center.
The highest flight level winds measured by the aircraft have been
63 kt with SFMR surface winds of 40 kt. Since the plane did not
fully sample the convective band, the initial intensity is kept at
45 kt. The global models continue to significantly deepen the
cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours, which is likely due to the
interaction of the system with a mid- to upper-level trough that is
currently moving southeastward over the Midwest. The intensity
forecast calls for an increase in wind speed during the next 24
to 36 hours, then gradual weakening as an extratropical cyclone
after day 2.

Colin's initial motion is north-northeastward, or 030/20 kt.
The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward as it moves
along the coast of the southeastern United States later tonight
and Tuesday. A continued rapid northeastward motion is expected as
the cyclone moves over the North Atlantic within strong
southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The
track guidance has changed little during first 24 to 36 h, but
has shifted northwestward after that time. The NHC forecast has
been adjusted accordingly, and is closest to the 12z ECMWF.

Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from
the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact
forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding are already affecting
much of Florida and portions of the southeast United States.

It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical
cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this
case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on
the post-tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 28.8N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1800Z 35.2N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 08/0600Z 39.4N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 08/1800Z 43.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 48.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 53.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 56.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Tommy]

I'm on Ocracoke Island which is just south of Cape Hatteras, so it should be interesting here about 2:00 PM Tuesday.