bertram31.com

Would appreciate some opinions on the weather for a Bahama's crossing this week (like Monday or Tuesday) from Ft Lauderdale.
Aparently the weather's been somewhat questionable for the last week or so ?
Capt says he's leaving Lauderdale @ next good break in the weather.
It's a 65' MY that cruises about 17kts.
I'm supposed to meet the boat in Nassau on Friday the 24th.
Debating if I should pull the chute now and reschedule ?

John,

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
957 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

.MONDAY...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE
CHOP. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING WEST 10 TO
15 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR SHORE...SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WELL
OFFSHORE...SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.

.TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH 15 TO
20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET
IN THE AFTERNOON. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL WATERS
A LIGHT CHOP.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your Captain should have very little problem crossing on Monday with a 65'... At 17 kts his crossing should take around 9 - 10 hours Lauderdale to Nassau. That presumes that he cuts across the big bank north of Bimini and into the Tounge of the Ocean below the Berry Islands.

If he's going to cross over the top of the big bank into Northwest Providence Channel, he'll have to stay over either in Freeport, Lucaya, or Great Bridge & make Nassua the next day. Lauderdale to Freeport is about the same 8 - 10 hours. Freeport to Nassau, about 6 - 8 hours. Either way, he should easily be there before you...

Br,

Patrick

Thanks for the confirmation Pat.
Curious, what website did you use to get this info ?

John,

The weather forecast is from National Weather Service, (NOAA)...

Br,

Patrick

John, heres a good one http://barometerbob.com/ You can't always trust NOAA reports. Are you crossing to Bimini or Grand? I just got back and it's been pretty windy lately, make sure you have a good window for your return so you won't get stuck.
RussP

I second the recommendation for Barometer Bob. There is a tag link on the top of the page for "passage conditions."

Basically you don't want to attempt the crossing if there is any northern component to the wind, or the possibility of the wind turning from north during your trip. When a north wind blows against the north-running gulf stream huge seas rise up fast. Squall lines can do the same thing too but are even less predictable.

You also have to consider the conditions on the bank. It could get ugly really fast as you approach the Bahama Bank. The water goes from 2000 to 50 feet real fast and big breaking waves could ruin your day.

We didn't fish but I was chatting with a local captian from Stuart at Old Bahama Bay and he said the Wahoo bite was pretty good between West End and Bootle Bay in 300 feet.

RussP

Was using some good weather sites last yr.
Didn't write them down and they've been long since wiped out of my laptop.
Thanks again for all the references.

And thanks for your concerns.
Have been over an back afew times.
Last January's 1st big run of the season was the crossing.
Were plagued with injector/fuel problems that made for too much cruising time at a slow and sometimes uncomfortable pace.
Haven't paid much attention to the weather cause I wasn't planning to make the crossing part of our trip.
Wife & I want to spend most of this trip just poking around the Exumas in deep R&R mode.
Boat's not coming back to FL til April or May.
Cheers,

You can't always trust NOAA reports.

recommendation for Barometer Bob

First, Accuweather, WeatherChannel, WeatherUnderground, Intellecast, (4 of the commercial "Biggies"), and smaller reporting sites like CaptainsWeather, BarometerBob, & others are basically just reporting what NOAA reports...

Second, no weather forecast will be point on for the given pin point of the globe that you're sitting on at any given moment. Weather forecasting should be viewed as a general indicator of what the conditions are most likely to be.

As a loose rule of thumb, what ever NOAA is predicting, I add about a 10% - 20% negative factor. If they are calling for 5-7 foot seas, I call it 6-8 foot. For anybody that's been on the water for very long, they know that a given range of sea conditions are going to carry an occassional larger swell. So If I see a 5-7 foot forecast, I assume automatically that I'm going to encounter a few seas as high as 8-10 feet...

The reason I personally go straight to NOAA for weather forecasts is that it's a no nonsense, straight format, information source. I don't have to be subjected to all the hype or hunting through obscure links to find what I'm looking for. A lot of the smaller sites tend to be rather amerturely put together with way too many things jambed into a single page, making a cluttered & some times confusing display.

The most important decission one must make, armed with who-ever's forecast, is based on the size & condition of the boat, experience of the crew, & comfort of both crew & passengers. Crews can put up with a lot more discomfort than passengers generally, so if no weak at heart land lubbers are aboard, crossing an 6-8' Gulf Stream on a south wind, in a 65' MY ain't that big of a deal...

I'll continue to stick with NOAA........

Br,

Patrick

I only use NOAA for my forecasts too.

One thing I find is that you can never rely on just one of their forecasts.

Usually it is best to monitor all of the adjacent forecast areas.

This is especially true here in the Northeast where we run 100 miles sometimes.

Also marine text forecasts are very good 12 hours out, but are fair at best 24 hours out. Anything beyond 24 is just an approximation of what potential the particular weather pattern might have.

If you use the 7 day barometric loop in conjunction with the forecasts, you really start to get a feel for how things change. You'll know early in the week whether it's worth continuing to check the forecast for a Saturday run or not.

They never seem to make this link easy to find, but it is the most valuable tool they offer, at least from my perspective.

Use this and the text forecasts and your likely to have a good idea of what your getting into. The more you use it the better your feel gets for the possibilities. When you are inside of 12 hours, the marine text forecasts should then become the bible.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

mike

Capt. Pat...

So you're sayin that NOAA/NWS doesn't get their info from one of Barometer Bob's many weather satellites orbiting the earth right now? You sure? Them Bahamians do have an excellent space program...

Seriously though, I think Barometer Bob does have an edge in one area. Finding the forecast for the Bahamas...Well the Abacos and surrounding area anyways. For instance, if I want to find out what the conditions in Green Turtle, or Cherokee, or MOW are forecast to be in a few days, for a day of bonefishing, or deep dropping, I'd certainly check B.B. before NOAA. Only because the info is specific for this area, is easy to locate, etc.

But to check the forecast for crossing, NOAA/NWS is a no brainer... Much more at stake crossing the stream than bonefish and mal de mar.
Even when one clicks on the 'passage conditions' on B.B., it brings up the actual NWS page, same thing for the 'tropical outlook'... actual NOAA/NWS page.

Mike,

Nice link... I haven't seen that one before. Very informative. I always have trouble predicting how the fronts will move, stall, etc. Not that this is written in stone, but it is nice. Bookmarking it now, thanks for sharing...

Here's another link for wind speeds. I've been following it for a while now and it's pretty close to the actual conditions. http://www.buoyweather.com/buoyreports.htm is another really good one that shows actual wave hieghts.

RussP