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000
ABNT20 KNHC 142315
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in association
with the surface trough and upper-level low over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. However, the low's circulation is not well-defined,
and the current shower and thunderstorm activity remains somewhat
disorganized. The aircraft also found a large area of tropical
storm force winds well to the north and northeast of the low.
Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more favorable
while this system moves northwestward during the next couple of days
across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm could form during that time. Another Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate this system Monday morning.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated
the broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this morning,
and found that the circulation was too poorly defined to qualify the
system as a tropical cyclone. However, thunderstorm activity
continues to become better organized this afternoon, and the low
will very likely become a tropical storm this afternoon or this
evening as it continues moving to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds with the low are estimated to be near 45
mph, and interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

They called for the voluntary evacuation of the Bolivar Peninsula a few hours ago. But a full moon tide will practically cover the road down there. Central-eastern Texas may get the worst of the effects by way of more heavy rain, 7-10 inches (like they need more). It appears to be a super high tide, rain and a bit of wind ordeal along the coast.

I'm hoping nothing more, because I prepared for nothing more :-0

Good Luck guys... You have had a hell of a lot of rain...

Dug