Hurricane experts admit they cannot predict hurricanes

[AndreF]

Hurricane experts admit they can’t predict hurricanes early; December forecasts too unreliable
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
By Tom Spears, The Ottawa Citizen



Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.
Photographed by:
Noaa, Getty Images, Getty Images
OTTAWA — Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run.

Colorado State has been known for decades for forecasts of how many named storms and hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.)

Last week, the pair made this announcement:

“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year … Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

The two will still make the traditional forecasts closer to hurricane season.

An earlier version of this story incorrectly said they were stopping all forecasts.

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen

[CaptPatrick]

'Bout freakin' time...

[Brewster Minton]

Now if we could just get the people who do offshore forcasts to admit they have no idea what it will be like tomarro afternoon will be doing great.

[randall]

goes for surf forecasting also...my favorite is to look at the cam and see something completely different from the "report". hell ..forget forecasting....they get it wrong in real time.

[Capt. DQ]

Brewster & Randall,

You need to go to this link and sign up below, it's a free membership. Watch the video tutorials for offshore data, but the main thing is Reefcast, its a ocean forecasting tool which is 90% + accurate within a 72 hr window even though it goes out 7 days.

The NWS voted it #1 in 2008 as they still use today, but watch the tutorial s on how to use it and the satellite data, I guarantee you will love it. We use it all the time down here on the Gulfcoast as it puts everything else to shame. It is a GIS mapped site.

http://fryingpantower.com/

[Carl]

goes for surf forecasting also...my favorite is to look at the cam and see something completely different from the "report". hell ..forget forecasting....they get it wrong in real time.

Wanna increase the Weather Report accuracy 10 fold...give the Meteorologist an office with windows.

[Doug Crowther]

Hurricane experts admit they can’t predict hurricanes early; December forecasts too unreliable
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
By Tom Spears, The Ottawa Citizen



Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.
Photographed by:
Noaa, Getty Images, Getty Images
OTTAWA — Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run.

Colorado State has been known for decades for forecasts of how many named storms and hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.)

Last week, the pair made this announcement:

“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year … Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

The two will still make the traditional forecasts closer to hurricane season.

An earlier version of this story incorrectly said they were stopping all forecasts.

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen

You still go fishing Andre ?

[AndreF]

Not much lately, Doug. Katrina was brutal. Moved my boat inland on the Tickfaw some 110 miles from Venice after she took my Camp at Port Eads and destroyed Venice. We built a camp on the Tickfaw and that, with now five grandkids, has curtailed fishing for the whole family for awhile. Am staying in fresh water for awhile more.
How have you been?