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Gert van Leest
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Strange Wheather

Post by Gert van Leest »

Just checking with you guys,

November was the driest november since November 1932 here in The Netherlands.
The rivers are at their lowest height ever..
Average temperature is also much higer... last year we had snow and -5 Celcius
Today it was nice and sunny with 12 Celcius....thats 17 degrees differance !!!
Is the thermostat broken ???
Please let me you know your findings.

BR Gert
Women are like boats ,the older they get , the more money and professional help they need to look beautiful.
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In Memory Walter K
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Post by In Memory Walter K »

We had a long very cold Winter, no Spring, a fairly comfortable Summer and an exceptionally long and warmish Fall. Hope to God the Winter isn't as brutal as the last one. Some places in our Northeast got hit with a snowstorm in October which is very unusual. Last one was 72 years ago. One thing is for sure, we don't know a damned thing about the workings of Mother Nature and cannot control or even predict most of her doings. Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Floods and Fires, and we blame it on our carbon and co2 emissions?
IRGuy
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Post by IRGuy »

I am a retired engineer and certainly believe in science, but I am always amazed that Al Gore and his lunatic global warming friends can scream dire warnings about how the oceans will rise and the polar bears won't have any ice to live on, when professional weather forecasters can't predict next week's weather with assurance!
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randall
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Post by randall »

yesterday was the warmest nov 28th in history here. about last winter.....it snowed a lot , which i like as i X country skied every day for an hour after lunch, but it wasn't cold. lots of days i skied in just a sweater.


about polar bears.....not going to argue global warming or its causes or not but its just a plain fact that the ice they need to survive is greatly diminished in many places. i'm kind of a polar bear fan........used to draw them all the time when i was a kid.
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Brewster Minton
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Post by Brewster Minton »

If you spend some time looking, there are twice as many polar bears as there was 20 years ago. My Dad went to the north pole this past summer and the bear expert on board said it was so. It was a National Geographic tour. To bad the truth does not make it here. I mean the USA not the sandbox.
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randall
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Post by randall »

well....i can give you the book i'm reading right now. it has a different eye
witness account. there are plenty of bears (the population has increased)....they are just moving to land....the question is... is it sustainable? my friend murry's been to the north pole 3 times (he didnt go swimming but some did) there ARE places where polar bears are doing ok......especially off the islands north of norway but in many places they are not. less ice.

i have no idea if its man made or just a natural cycle and frankly it dosent really matter. its self perpetuating. less ice...less reflected light more heat absorbed. more permafrost melted more eons old vegetable matter decaying into the atmosphere. the sky isnt falling and its a very slow process which none of us will really see.
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In Memory Walter K
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Post by In Memory Walter K »

Randall- I certainly can't explain it, but there has to be something in the idea of cycles. 15 years ago I couldn't drive up Springy Banks Road at night without seeing the eyes of at least 3-4 pairs of Foxes. They'd trot across my cul-de-sac in broad daylight to the point I'd worry about my cat getting nailed by one. We live in a no-hunting area, and they certainly weren't bought in by some do-gooder group. Within a five year period, we've seen less and less of them, to the point where we haven't seen even one for the past five years. When I was a kid, catching a Bluefish was a big thing, but we had lots of Mackerel in the Spring and Fall. We were told by the old-timers, "if we have Mackerel, we don't have Bluefish. If we have Bluefish, no Mackerel". Right now, Bluefish-hardly any Mackerel. Weakfish were thick in Peconic Bay. Almost a sure thing. All this with no environmentalists and hardly any legal restrictions. I'm beginning to think there IS something to Cycles.
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Brewster Minton
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Post by Brewster Minton »

Randall, Im not saying your wrong. I was just passing on what I was told by someone I beleive. 98.9% of all the life that ever lived on this rock is now extinct. Im sure humans will not be far behind.
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Post by Tony Meola »

Gert look at what you started.

Ok guys, Global warming started at the end of the Ice Age. The ice has been melting ever since that time. Come on, Al Gore is a little late to the game if you just think about it.

Remember, the earth is young, things happen in full cycles of a million years or more. The sun is growing bigger and bigger means the earth gets hotter and hotter.

It is simple science.

Tou Gert's question, here in the NE, follow what Walter said but add a lot of rain. The South West is dry and in a bad drought. It is just crazy.
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Peter
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Post by Peter »

This stuff bugs me because it ignores long term trends.

To start with you must be familiarized with the science idea of what is stability:

An unstable system once distrurbed runs amock. A stable system once disturbed returns toward its mean (average).

The classic example is a marble and a bowl. If the marble is balanced on top of an inverted bowl and something disturbs it , it runs all the way down the side and off the counter. Unstable.

But if the bowl is the right side up and the marble within, then a disturbance of the marble is temporary... it always moves back to the center of the bowl even though at any instant it might look like it is zipping about. Stable.

So "stable" doesn't mean stationary like a table... it means we wiggle and zoom about, but naturally return to the average or mean value.

So first of all what is our base line? What is our "bottom of the bowl?" Better science than the global warming tells us that the Earth was mostly jungle at one time (Dinosaurs and oil) and was also covered in glaciers at other times. Sometimes too cold, and sometimes too hot for what we currently consider ideal.

Next what happens if we do warm up a little bit an all else stays the same? Clouds form as the ocean water evaporates due to increased heat and these clouds block the sun and cause us to cool down.

Or maybe it goes the other way... we cool off.... so the water mostly condenses and we see bright blue sky, which causes us to warm back up , and clouds start to form. And they cool us back down.

Stable

Water is the mediator. It is a good thing we have lots of it in our oceans.

But I'm not saying that man has had zero effect. It doesn't hurt an athiest to pray, and it doesn't hurt a global warming skeptic to polute less.

Still, one serious astroid strike changes everything in our lifetimes. And so does a giant volcano. Both happen and we have no control over them.

And yes, We have had an unusually warm fall here. I am enjoying it and expecting a cool spring.

Peter
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randall
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Post by randall »

as to fox....mange killed em. we used to be inundated with them. doing great on the deer and turkey front however. i see them both every morning on my walk to get the paper.


two books worth reading are "barrows boys" and "a view from lazy point".

barrow was obsessed with finding the north west passage in the 1850's. his expeditions, staying as far south as possible in the arctic ocean, were regularly iced in for years. now people can jump in the water at the north pole in high summer. 160 years is a millisecond in geologic time.....just food for thought.

having nothing to do with weather but interesting was the discovery of a group of folks on one of these expeditions living far north on the coast of greenland that thought they were the only people in the world. they used animal products for everything as they had never seen a tree. the sleds were made of bone and sinue and had frozen fish for runners.

the other book was written by a very interesting guy(and avid fisherman) who lives 3 miles from me. he travels the world and observes.....he seems to know what hes talking about. (he fears for coral reefs and polar bears)
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randall
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Post by randall »

peter...thats a great example and i think is exactly correct. everything seems to work in waves and cycles.

of course i could open a whole new can of worms (not for fishing) and discuss how over population is really the culprit behind all the other problems, but i'm tired so i'll just let it slide.

brewster.....i don't know about extinction but i can almost guarantee a sever correction.
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In Memory of Vicroy
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Post by In Memory of Vicroy »

I'm with Tony, we had an ice age not too long ago, in geoloic time. Climate change is a natural process, while weather is a short term reaction to various enviromental condtions such as sea water temps.

The press is full right now of the global warming love-fest in South Africa that has, as usual, dissolved into greedy wanna-be "scientists" scrambling for someone else's money. Bunch of shoplifters.

C'on guys, how long have accurate weather observations been taken and recoded by the human race?

UV
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Dug
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Post by Dug »

Well Gert, here in New England, it has been a lovely warm fall. I think it is 55 or so outside today, farenheight, and yesterday was 60. Supposed to cool this week (mid 40's) and then go back up again for the weekend. Its great as far as I am concerned, though I am still picking up the snowblower to bring home for the winter. Not burning much oil to heat the house at all. We've only turned the heat on once and burned wood the rest of the time. In fact, it has all been the butt ends we've burned. Wood box is full, and untouched so far. Nice...
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Carl
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Post by Carl »

Peter...one of the best explanations I've heard and could not agree more.

I especially like the Don't Pollute...just cause you shouldn't.


Gert weather has been all over the place the past few years...

Too Hot
Too Cold
Too Much Rain
Too Much Snow

Comfortable when it should be cold...


It is what it is...and it is Strange.
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randall
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Post by randall »

from todays paper.......just sayin'

http://www.dawn.com/2011/12/02/us-repor ... -2006.html
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